A diminution that was actually expected and which has been noticed especially during the last four years is the one of new residential construction sites, and the slippery slope downward will continue having its effects during 2008 and 2009. The figures have been provided by the CMHC on the occasion of its latest annual conference on housing perspectives which was held in Montreal.
If one starts with the region of Montreal, one should register 20 100 new construction sites (which is the total of all the components) in 2009, whereas in 2008, one should finish the year with 22 300 new building foundations.
The region of Sherbrooke should register 1 250 new construction sites in 2009, whereas one should count 1 530 of them for the current year. The region of Quebec City will move from 5 430 new construction sites in 2008 to 4 550 in 2009. A substantial diminution is also expected for the region of Gatineau which, on its part, should register 2 600 new construction sites in 2009, and it should finish the year 2008 with 3 000 new construction sites. The region of Trois-Rivières should register 1 150 new construction sites for the current year, but in 2009, this figure should move to around a 1 000. Finally, Saguenay should register 720 new construction sites in 2009, whereas a number of 800 should be registered in the books in 2008.
It is the component of individual homes that knows the most important diminutions, and these should affect all urban areas. One should also register less new collective housing, but its decrease will be smoother.
The resale market is no exception and it will be less active in 2009, even if one will notice a still pretty dynamic market. Should resales be less numerous in all the major cities of Quebec, the situation will be different as far as the average price increase of property is concerned. Since 2006 average prices have increased in a regular fashion.
A fact which concerns owners and building contractors of collective housing to the utmost is the vacancy rate. Here are the vacancy rates for the principal urban centres that appear in the crystal ball of the CMHC for the year 2009. Montreal (3,3 %); Quebec City (1,2 %); Gatineau (3,0 %); Sherbrooke (2,2 %); Trois-Rivières (2,2 %); and Saguenay (3,2 %).