"In the coming years, demographic factors will sustain the province's housing markets, but at the same time change their complexion. While sustained net migration to the province will continue to have a positive impact on the rental and resale markets, migration numbers are expected to remain stable over the coming years as no significant change in immigration targets is expected. Population aging, on the other hand, will have a growing impact on the dynamics of the housing market in Quebec, as older households are expected to re-enter the market in response to their changing housing needs," said David L'Heureux, Senior Market Analyst at CMHC.
In 2011, slower job growth, the recent easing of the resale market and the continuing trend toward the multi-family dwellings have brought down single starts. As a less pronounced decline is expected over the next two years, a total of 15,700 single-detached homes is forecast for 2012. In 2013 single starts should moderate to 15,000 units. The rising popularity of the more affordable multi-family homes and densification trends will further cool this market segment in the future.
Following a year of sustained construction in 2011, starts of multi-family dwellings will settle back to more sustainable rates in the next two years. Multiple starts are forecast to be 29,700 this year and 27,100 units in 2013.
After recording a slight drop last year, sales recorded by the MLS® will bounce back up in this year. This year will see sales of existing condominiums (town houses or apartments) moderate. As a result, 81,300 MLS® unit sales are forecast in 2012 and 82,100 in 2013.
Relatively stable demand for resale homes, combined with rising supply, has already taken some pressure off prices in recent quarters and should continue to do so in the near term. With a return to more balanced conditions, price growth in the resale market will moderate over the course of 2012 and in 2013. For 2012, the average MLS® price is forecast to be $271,600 while 2013 will see an increase to $277,800.